My Four Prospects for Pick #45

-@threalmattmoney   

`I'm not a huge college basketball fan so I went into the pre-draft scouting process completely blind, fortunately Tom Westerholm (@Tom_NBA) wrote a blog that included 10 likely players the Celtics could pick at this year's #45 spot. He added two more names on his podcast, after hearing and reading about those twelve prospects I did some more digging and found the four I really like. I looked for guys with either really high upside or an elite skill that will help them find a role at the next level. 

   

    4) Weiskamp most certainly has an elite skill. He very well may be the best catch-and-shoot shooter in this draft class. He shot 46% on threes last year as a junior at Iowa. You've seen guys like Joe Harris and Duncan Robinson play huge roles on very successful teams, and Weiskamp could do the same. Harris was a 2nd round pick and Robinson went undrafted, so there is a track records for white shooters who lack athleticism and a plus secondary skill to be underrated by scouts. He definitely has some serious concerns especially defensively, but his ability to shoot the ball can keep him on the court. 

    

`    3) Herb Jones will be a plus defender at the NBA level, it is the other parts of his game that are concerning. He did shoot 35% from 3, but those numbers are pretty misleading. Most of those shots were wide open and he only took 57 attempts last year. So the shot and the ability to score on offense is a bit concerning, but he could act as a playmaker. He has shown the ability to facilitate for others (3.3APG last year) so it is possible that they hide his inability to shoot by allowing him to run the offense. He is also a great finisher around the rim because of his elite athleticism. He might not be the best fit on the Celtics with his skill set, but he is an interesting prospect for sure. 

    2) JT Thor has one of easily the best names in this draft, and once he enters the league will have a top tier name in the NBA. I like a lot more about him than just his name though, he is one of the most versatile defenders in this draft class (can easily switch 2-5), but is still pretty raw. The hope is that offensively he can be effective in both the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop. He only shot 29.7% from 3 last year, but his shot doesn't look broken and he shot 74% from the line which is promising. His athleticism will allow him to be effective as a lob threat and a cutter, but needs to make big strides in his ball handling. along with his ball handling needing improvement, he is one of the worst passers I've ever seen. Thor seems to get flustered pretty easily when he is pressured with the ball, and is a very bad inbounder. I think he still should be considered a project (he'll be 18 until late August) but has defensive ability to not be a total negative on the court right now. He has one of the highest upsides of any of these 2nd rounders. 

    1) Brandon Boston was a projected top-10 pick headed into his freshman year at Kentucky, but he had a very underwhelming freshman season. He started off very poorly, but began to improve towards the end of the season. I think Thor has one of the highest upsides, but I think Boston has the highest. I legitimately think he could be a similar player to Demar DeRozan if he hits his ceiling as a player. Now obviously the next Demar wouldn't be going in the 2nd round if there were no detractors. He has shown the ability to create for himself off the dribble, but his jumper is a little slow which allows for guys to get back in position to contest his shot. His shot selection needs to improve as well, his shooting stroke looks pretty good, but he takes a ton of tough shots. Lastly, he is built like a string bean. he is 6'6" and 185lbs, he definitely needs to bulk up if he wants to not get picked on defensively by other forwards, the weight will also probably help him improve on his finishing around the rim as well. 

The Case for Point Smart

    A lot of fuss has been made this offseason about the Celtics' point guard situation with the departure of Kemba Walker. Will the Celtics use their MLE on a point guard or trust Smart and Pritchard to lead the starters and second unit. Whether or not Pritchard can be our main bench facilitator is a question for another day. I would like to focus on the case for Marcus Smart being our starting point guard. 

    Marcus Smart has been very versatile both offensively and defensively, being able to play both the point guard and shooting guard position throughout his career. I feel from the general perspective his playmaking is very underrated. He has always primarily played the two guard during his career aside from his rookie season, so he hasn't had the responsibility of being the clear lead facilitator on a team since his rookie year. Despite not being a true point guard he has the led the Celtics in assists the past two seasons, in which he has set career highs in assists each of those seasons. Smart is coming off of a year where he averaged 5.7 assists per game while being fourth among starters in usage rate. 

    Marcus Smart isn't just a good playmaker compared to his own team, he also excels among combo guards around the league. He was in the 68th percentile in assists percentage at 22.7% as well as being in the 79th percentile in assists% to usage% at 1.1, which led the Celtics among qualified players. 

    The Celtics' defense was a big concern last season as they were much worse than they had been in previous seasons. The Boston's defense has been much better over the past two seasons with Smart as the one rather than the two. Last season his defensive rating, points allowed per 100 possessions, as a point guard was 111.8 while his defensive rating as a shooting guard was 113.6. There was an even bigger discrepancy in '19-'20 where the defense allowed 100.7 points per 100 possessions while Smart was at point guard, and the defensive rating was 107 while he was at shooting guard. 

    Lastly, and Udoka mentioned this in his introductory press conference, the Celtics were near the bottom of the league in assists. This makes it seem like they are in desperate need to add a facilitating, but the construction of the roster already looks to be conducive to more ball movement. Teague, Walker, and Green were in the bottom 34th, 27th, and 6th respectively for assist percentage among their position groups and all three are already off the roster. Thompson and Ojeleye are two players I hope not to see on the roster at the beginning of next season, and they ranked in the bottom 35th and 10th percentile for assist percentage. The potential starting lineup for next season which includes Smart, Fournier, Brown, Tatum, and Rob Williams were all among the upper 68th percentile or better for assist percentage. Our newest addition Al Horford was one of the best passing big men in all of the NBA, he had an assist percentage of 20.6% which ranked in the 94th percentile. 

    With the way the roster is currently constructed, Marcus Smart would be a great fit as the point guard. I believe he will continue to increase his assist numbers, while also unlocking the true potential of this Boston defense with his defensive versatility.