Potential Dennis Schroder Trades

 Potential Dennis Schroder Trades

    First off, I wanted to say this is no way suggesting that Dennis Schroder is the sole reason this Celtics team has been playing below expectations. I have actually been very happy with what I have seen from Schroder at many points this season. His offense has been so important at times when we've lacked shot creators at times. 

    The reason I am suggestion he be traded really boils down to three reasons. One, he is playing on a prove it deal this year and is unlikely to re-sign at the end of this season. So we might as well try to get some value for him as the way it looks right now, we are not looking like serious contenders. Two, the lineup of Smart, Schroder, Tatum, Horford, and Rob has been absolutely brutal this year. This is the lineup we have been running the majority of the time with Jaylen out, and it has been poor mostly because of the reasons I didn't love the Schroder/Smart backcourt pairing this offseason, just no shooting. This lineup has a net rating of -19.6, just flat out bad. With that 5-man lineup out there the Celtics shoot 25% from three, which is certainly not good. That brings us to our last reason, we have two young players that have been getting buried on the bench who have shown the potential to be great floor spacers in Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard. 

    Now I feel like in order to get Schroder moved a team must both think that they are a contender and are in need of a starting or back-up point guard. That really only leaves the Nuggets, Clippers, and the Miami Heat. 

    The Heat unfortunately do not have very many contracts that would make sense to trade in exchange for Schroder so they're out. Now we have the Clippers, if Kawhi is able to return at some point this season they could really be pushing to compete for championship. The addition of Dennis Schroder could certainly help with that. In exchange for Schroder I have a deal that lands Boston an athletic freak. 

Celtics receive: Keon Johnson

Clippers receive: Dennis Schroder + 2022 2nd round pick

    I like this for the Celtics because they get a guy who is an athletic freak, who is cheap, under control for three more seasons before restricted free agency, and has a lot of potential.

    My last deal I have is involving the Denver Nuggets. This deal involves the Celtics getting a young big and and a 2nd round pick. 

Celtics receive: Bol Bol, Facundo Campazzo, +2024 2nd round pick

Nuggets receive: Dennis Schroder

    Once again we get a deal where we can take a flyer on a young player, this time while acquiring a pick. Getting Campazzo is just so that the money can work, so we can cut him if the Celtics choose to because he is a free agent at the end of this year. For the Nuggets, they are asking a lot of Jokic, acquiring Schroder will allow them to get another guy who can create for himself as well as setting up others. 

-@threalmattmoney    

Celtics' Top Free Agent Targets

 

   -@threalmattmoney

    After making moves to acquire Josh Richardson and Kris Dunn, the Celtics have sured up some spots on their roster that were worrisome. Our depth chart as it stands right now looks like this, PG: Smart, Dunn, Pritchard, Edwards; SG: Richardson, Romeo; SF: Brown, Nesmith; PF: Tatum, G.Williams; C: R.Williams, Horford, Fernando. There is a noticeable lack of depth at the forward position, Nesmith is more of a 2/3 rather than a 3/4 and Grant being the only other option at power forward unless we run lineups with Rob & Al together is not ideal. We need a guy who can step in and play some minutes at the 4 when Tatum subs out as well play alongside Tatum in bigger lineups. I've picked out three names I would really like to see the Celtics target in free agency. The theme that Brad has gone with so far had been defense and ball movement, I tried to continue that theme. 

    Rudy Gay: Gay is a very underrated defender, and one who had some of the best on/off splits in the entire league. The Spurs were a much better team when he was on the court rather than off, especially on defense. The Spurs allowed 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when Gay was on the court than off, that ranked in the 97th percentile among players in his position group. As a whole the Spurs had a 9.1 Net Rating while Gay was on the Court. He also is a very versatile player, in the past four seasons he has logged 14% of his minutes at small forward, 82% at power forward, and 4% at Center. I mentioned before the importance Brad has seemed to stress on having ball movers, Gay is another guy that can do that with his assist percentage in the 65th percentile for his position group. He also isn't a bad floor spacer which is certainly a plus, he shot 38% from three last season on over four attempts a game. 

    Otto Porter Jr: Another guy who fits in the same mold as Gay is Otto Porter, a guy coming off a real down season but is still young enough and fits a lot of the Celtics' needs. As far as floor spacer, he was in the 71st percentile or better in both assist percentage and assist to usage ratio. He is excellent as a floor spacer, Porter has shot 40.2% from deep for his career over 9 seasons. As a defender Porter's teams have been two points per 100 possessions better while he is on the court the four of the past five seasons. Same as Gay, Porter has shown positional versatility, logging 63% of his minutes at small forward and 35% at power forward during his last three years in Chicago. Lastly, he is still 28 years old. 

    Justise Winslow: This pick is entirely personal, I do fully admit there are better forwards in our price range than Justise, but I really like Justise. Like Porter, Winslow is coming off a really down year that was plagued with injuries. Unlike the other two guys mentioned, Justise absolutely cannot space the floor. His last year with relative health was '18-'19 and if we could get that version of him it would be a steal for the MLE. That year he ranked in the 96th percentile or better in both assist percentage and assist to turnover ratio. He is a legitimate point forward who is extremely versatile on the defensive end. He has played significant minutes at shooting guard, small forward and power forward in the past and has even started a playoff game at center when he was playing for the Heat. The craziest part about Justise Winslow's up and down career is he's still only 25 years old. Injuries are certainly a concern, but Winslow sure is an intriguing pick up. 

    With NBA free agency getting started in about three hours, I would really like to see one of these forwards in talks with the Celtics. 

My Four Prospects for Pick #45

-@threalmattmoney   

`I'm not a huge college basketball fan so I went into the pre-draft scouting process completely blind, fortunately Tom Westerholm (@Tom_NBA) wrote a blog that included 10 likely players the Celtics could pick at this year's #45 spot. He added two more names on his podcast, after hearing and reading about those twelve prospects I did some more digging and found the four I really like. I looked for guys with either really high upside or an elite skill that will help them find a role at the next level. 

   

    4) Weiskamp most certainly has an elite skill. He very well may be the best catch-and-shoot shooter in this draft class. He shot 46% on threes last year as a junior at Iowa. You've seen guys like Joe Harris and Duncan Robinson play huge roles on very successful teams, and Weiskamp could do the same. Harris was a 2nd round pick and Robinson went undrafted, so there is a track records for white shooters who lack athleticism and a plus secondary skill to be underrated by scouts. He definitely has some serious concerns especially defensively, but his ability to shoot the ball can keep him on the court. 

    

`    3) Herb Jones will be a plus defender at the NBA level, it is the other parts of his game that are concerning. He did shoot 35% from 3, but those numbers are pretty misleading. Most of those shots were wide open and he only took 57 attempts last year. So the shot and the ability to score on offense is a bit concerning, but he could act as a playmaker. He has shown the ability to facilitate for others (3.3APG last year) so it is possible that they hide his inability to shoot by allowing him to run the offense. He is also a great finisher around the rim because of his elite athleticism. He might not be the best fit on the Celtics with his skill set, but he is an interesting prospect for sure. 

    2) JT Thor has one of easily the best names in this draft, and once he enters the league will have a top tier name in the NBA. I like a lot more about him than just his name though, he is one of the most versatile defenders in this draft class (can easily switch 2-5), but is still pretty raw. The hope is that offensively he can be effective in both the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop. He only shot 29.7% from 3 last year, but his shot doesn't look broken and he shot 74% from the line which is promising. His athleticism will allow him to be effective as a lob threat and a cutter, but needs to make big strides in his ball handling. along with his ball handling needing improvement, he is one of the worst passers I've ever seen. Thor seems to get flustered pretty easily when he is pressured with the ball, and is a very bad inbounder. I think he still should be considered a project (he'll be 18 until late August) but has defensive ability to not be a total negative on the court right now. He has one of the highest upsides of any of these 2nd rounders. 

    1) Brandon Boston was a projected top-10 pick headed into his freshman year at Kentucky, but he had a very underwhelming freshman season. He started off very poorly, but began to improve towards the end of the season. I think Thor has one of the highest upsides, but I think Boston has the highest. I legitimately think he could be a similar player to Demar DeRozan if he hits his ceiling as a player. Now obviously the next Demar wouldn't be going in the 2nd round if there were no detractors. He has shown the ability to create for himself off the dribble, but his jumper is a little slow which allows for guys to get back in position to contest his shot. His shot selection needs to improve as well, his shooting stroke looks pretty good, but he takes a ton of tough shots. Lastly, he is built like a string bean. he is 6'6" and 185lbs, he definitely needs to bulk up if he wants to not get picked on defensively by other forwards, the weight will also probably help him improve on his finishing around the rim as well. 

The Case for Point Smart

    A lot of fuss has been made this offseason about the Celtics' point guard situation with the departure of Kemba Walker. Will the Celtics use their MLE on a point guard or trust Smart and Pritchard to lead the starters and second unit. Whether or not Pritchard can be our main bench facilitator is a question for another day. I would like to focus on the case for Marcus Smart being our starting point guard. 

    Marcus Smart has been very versatile both offensively and defensively, being able to play both the point guard and shooting guard position throughout his career. I feel from the general perspective his playmaking is very underrated. He has always primarily played the two guard during his career aside from his rookie season, so he hasn't had the responsibility of being the clear lead facilitator on a team since his rookie year. Despite not being a true point guard he has the led the Celtics in assists the past two seasons, in which he has set career highs in assists each of those seasons. Smart is coming off of a year where he averaged 5.7 assists per game while being fourth among starters in usage rate. 

    Marcus Smart isn't just a good playmaker compared to his own team, he also excels among combo guards around the league. He was in the 68th percentile in assists percentage at 22.7% as well as being in the 79th percentile in assists% to usage% at 1.1, which led the Celtics among qualified players. 

    The Celtics' defense was a big concern last season as they were much worse than they had been in previous seasons. The Boston's defense has been much better over the past two seasons with Smart as the one rather than the two. Last season his defensive rating, points allowed per 100 possessions, as a point guard was 111.8 while his defensive rating as a shooting guard was 113.6. There was an even bigger discrepancy in '19-'20 where the defense allowed 100.7 points per 100 possessions while Smart was at point guard, and the defensive rating was 107 while he was at shooting guard. 

    Lastly, and Udoka mentioned this in his introductory press conference, the Celtics were near the bottom of the league in assists. This makes it seem like they are in desperate need to add a facilitating, but the construction of the roster already looks to be conducive to more ball movement. Teague, Walker, and Green were in the bottom 34th, 27th, and 6th respectively for assist percentage among their position groups and all three are already off the roster. Thompson and Ojeleye are two players I hope not to see on the roster at the beginning of next season, and they ranked in the bottom 35th and 10th percentile for assist percentage. The potential starting lineup for next season which includes Smart, Fournier, Brown, Tatum, and Rob Williams were all among the upper 68th percentile or better for assist percentage. Our newest addition Al Horford was one of the best passing big men in all of the NBA, he had an assist percentage of 20.6% which ranked in the 94th percentile. 

    With the way the roster is currently constructed, Marcus Smart would be a great fit as the point guard. I believe he will continue to increase his assist numbers, while also unlocking the true potential of this Boston defense with his defensive versatility. 

 Tristan Thompson Potential Trades

                                                  

    -@threalmattmoney

    After the move to acquire Al Horford, Tristan Thompson is now the third best center on this Celtics roster. I imagine he would want to go to a place where he would have a significant role and a place that would be competitive. Clearly Thompson doesn't have a ton of leverage here, but it is probably wise not to piss off Rich Paul. There aren't a ton of teams that fit the criteria for a good landing spot for Thompson, but I was able to find a few. 

Trade #1

Portland Trailblazers- This trade is may be fairly unlikely, but Jusuf Nurkic has expressed his displeasure with role on the Blazers, no I don't think Nurkic would be good fit, but it would cause Portland to have a vacancy at the starting center position. There is a young player on the Trailblazers, who I think is attainable that would really help the Celtics. His name is Derrick Jones Jr. He is a guy who plays both forward positions, who can defend at a high level and has improved his shooting steadily throughout his career. I think Portland likes him, but maybe Jones winds up being the odd man out in the Portland rotation. Maybe Portland would be willing to do this trade straight up, but maybe we have to attach a low value asset as well. 

Trade #2

Los Angeles Lakers- The only real reason for this is Lebron has a good relationship with Tristan, he is a Klutch client and the Lakers' centers were very disappointing this season. Marc Gasol looked old, Andre Drummond looked like well.... Andre Drummond, and Montrezl Harrell was glued to the bench for most of the playoffs. So maybe they look to try to rebuild on the fly around Lebron & AD. Aside from those two, only KCP & Kuzma have any sort of money on the books for the future. I think after last year the Lakers and Bron don't consider Kuzma a core piece going forward. So in comes Tristan Thompson, once again I don't think it would be a straight up deal for the reason that Kuzma has much more value than Thompson at this point in their careers. Even parting with a 2nd or two or maybe someone like Grant or Romeo wouldn't be the end of the world, although I would definitely prefer to keep Romeo. So maybe Thompson, Grant, a 2nd for Kuzma? I think it could be beneficial for both sides. 

    The choices are slim, but these two options seem reasonable and beneficial for all teams involved. Thompson still definitely has some productive years left and could provide value for teams in desperate need of a center. 

 Kemba Walker Trade Hypotheticals

                                                       

-@threalmattmoney

  I am still very unsure whether or not the rumors of the Celtics and Kemba Walker wanting to mutually part ways is true, but if it is we should begin to explore some of the possibilities we could get in exchange for him. Kemba is still a high level basketball player, probably only a tier below all-star but his contract exceeds his production. That is why it is very unlikely that we are going to be able to get a player or players of equal production in return. I have laid out three possibilities that make sense for both the Celtics and the other teams involved. 

Trade #1

New Orleans Pelicans-

    I imagine the Pelicans are going to want to begin competing quickly with Zion already playing as an All-NBA talent. They have a couple contracts they may want to get rid of, and its unlikely they will be able to resign all of their restricted free agents. I'm sure they would want spacing around Zion and Kemba could provide that. This deal would look like Steven Adams (2/35mil) plus a sign and trade involving Josh Hart with a contract ~14mil per year. preferably on a 2 year deal so we have some easily tradable contracts who can also provide help now as well as cap flexibility in a few years. Outgoing we would likely have Kemba Walker and possibly Grant Williams, a big who could theoretically space alongside Zion. Once again certainly not a perfect deal, but we get a proven NBA wing in Hart and a big physical center to guard guys like Embiid. 

Trade #2

Oklahoma City Thunder-

This trade brings a familiar face back home in Al Horford. This trade is probably my least favorite out of the three, because I think we get the least talent in return and we more than likely will have to give up a 1st and probably at minimum another 2nd. Why this makes sense for the Celtics is that Horford's deal is one year shorter and it provides a big who is known for being able to defend Embiid well. It would most certainly suck paying our backup center 27 mil, but it allows us a lot more cap and roster flexibility going forward. In this trade, like the trade above I am assuming if this trade is completed there will be a subsequent trade sending Thompson away. So in all this trade would likely look like Walker, 1st, 2 2nds<===>Horford.

Trade #3

Clippers/Cavaliers- This one is my favorite, it is also one that has a lot of moving parts. This probably only happens if the Clippers flame out once again and both PG and Kawhi stay. They clearly need another scorer on this team and Kemba could fill that roll either as a 6th man or in the starting lineup. The Clippers will be sending Patrick Beverly to the Celtics, and Luke Kennard and a 1st to the Cavs. Patrick Beverly is a fine defender, but is needed to make the money work and is by no means a centerpiece to this team. Kennard is a fine shooter, but on a big deal and has had multiple games this playoff without leaving the bench. They also will receive two 2nds from the Celtics. The Cavs will be sending Nance and Osman to the Celtics. Losing Nance will hurt, but they are getting a lot of compensation in form of draft picks. The Celtics will be giving the Cavs Romeo Langford and 2 1sts, and they will be giving the Clippers 2 2nds and Kemba. The Celtics get a lot more roster flexibility and cap from these moves and now have a very well rounded team. Their depth chart at the end of this deal would look like PG: Beverly, Pritchard, SG: Smart, Fournier, SF: Brown, Nesmith, PF: Tatum, Nance, C: Williams, Thompson. This team should certainly be an elite defensive team, with enough scoring to compete with the top competition. The roster may have less talent without Walker, but one could argue the roster is constructed much better than last year's.

Celtics Playoff Preview

    

 Celtics Playoff Preview

    This season has been filled with up and downs, but we've finally made it. Now after all the adversity, injuries, and winning a hard-fought play-in game against the Wizards, our reward is the Brooklyn Nets. The same Brooklyn Nets who have three future Hall of Famers, all of which still look like they are in their respective primes. The Celtics are down their 2nd best player in Jaylen Brown, and potentially down their best big man in Robert Williams. None of this bodes well for the Celtics' chances in this series, but we can still look ahead to what this series may bring. 

Defensive Matchups:

    The Celtics do not matchup well with the Nets one bit. We do have Tatum that can provide solid defense on Durant, and Marcus Smart has shown in the past he's about as good as it gets when guarding Harden. I'm not too concerned about our matchups against Joe Harris and whomever is playing center for the Nets, not to say Harris can't kill us with his shooting, but because he'll do most of his damage off-ball as a result of ball movement and the superstars around him. Lastly, we have Kemba on Kyrie. This is clearly going to be the matchup they attack the most often, I think in general they will try to pick on Kemba a lot. I think Nesmith is going to have his handful in situations having to guard Kyrie in minutes while he and Smart share the floor. It also hurts we can't try to mask this weakness with a guy who can help protect the paint like Rob. 

 Offensive Matchups:

    I expect the Nets to go small for a lot of this series so that they are very switchable, they don't have a guy you can pick on because they have pretty good size and athleticism at most spots. Just having these bigger bodies can really hide some of their weaknesses defensively. You would hope that with a team going small that our big man could take advantage of that, if we had Rob fully healthy I would agree that we could. As we continue to get updates that Rob is still not 100% it looks like we're going to see a whole lot of Tristan Thompson. Thompson attacking Jeff Green, Nick Claxton, or Blake Griffin is exactly what Brooklyn wants.  Thompson ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in points per shot attempt, and Thompson ranks in the bottom 9th percentile among bigs at the rim. So clearly the plan of attack should not be through Tristan Thompson. 

Previous Meetings:

    They lost the first matchup against the Nets on Christmas by a score of 123-95, and this was clearly prior to the acquisition of James Harden, but also prior to Kemba Walker returning. They played again in mid-March and the Nets once again won, this time by a score of 121 to 109, this time without Kevin Durant playing. The Nets completed the season sweep on April 23rd 109 to 104. This game the Nets were without Durant and Harden, while Kemba and Jaylen didn't play for the Celtics. 

One Last Thing: 

    In the playoffs last season Tatum played 12% of his minutes at center, I think him logging a lot of minutes at center gives us the best chance to be competitive in this series. We don't have a great rim protector anyways as it currently stands and the Nets excel with the lineup of Kyrie, Harden, Harris, KD, and Green, so much so that they are +26.5 points per 100 possessions. They can easily run this lineup and not get punished with any of the Celtics centers, so why not run a lineup with more shooting and more perimeter defenders to guard their big 3.